Executive Summary
Entering late 2025, soybean futures are navigating a landscape of abundant global supplies and steady but not accelerating demand, buoyed by strong Chinese imports under renewed trade commitments. November 2025 futures closed near 1,121¢ per bushel, with January 2026 contracts trading around 1,125¢, up slightly amid pre-Thanksgiving positioning. USDA’s November WASDE projects U.S. production at 4.253 billion bushels for 2025/26, with ending stocks tightening to 290 million bushels on robust crush and exports. Looking to 2026, long-term baselines suggest planted acres expanding modestly to 84.5 million, yields at 52 bushels per acre, and prices stabilizing near $10.50 per bushel amid Brazilian dominance. Globally, prices are forecast to average $460 per metric ton, reflecting oversupply pressures. Traders should brace for swings from South American weather, biofuel mandates, and U.S.-China dynamics, with a 2026 range of $10.00–$11.00 per bushel.
Current Market Snapshot
Soybean futures have stabilized after a volatile fall, with January 2026 contracts gaining 0.25¢ to 1,125.25¢ amid mixed export data showing a weekly low of 29.36 million bushels shipped through November 20—down sharply year-over-year. Technicals indicate support near the 50-day moving average, but resistance looms at 1,150¢. Fundamentally, U.S. exports pace at 1.69 billion bushels for 2025/26, down from prior estimates, while crush hits 2.56 billion on meal demand. China’s commitment to 918 million bushels annually through 2028 under trade pacts supports sentiment, though low oil prices cap biofuel upside.
Current contract levels include:
– January 2026: 1,125.25¢
– March 2026: 1,130.50¢
– May 2026: 1,135.00¢
– July 2026: 1,128.75¢
Supply Projections
U.S. soybean supply for 2025/26 remains ample, with total supplies at 5.225 billion bushels per November WASDE, reflecting higher beginning stocks and steady imports. Production is pegged at 4.253 billion bushels on a yield of 53 bushels per acre across 83.4 million harvested acres (planted at 86.0 million), down from September on lower yields but still robust. Ending stocks contract to 290 million bushels, yielding a stocks-to-use ratio of 5.1%.
For 2026/27, USDA long-term baselines project planted acres rising to 84.5 million (harvested at 81.0 million) on shifting rotations from corn amid fertilizer costs, with yields dipping to 52 bushels per acre for production near 4.212 billion bushels. Global output for 2025/26 hits 423 million metric tons, led by Brazil’s 175 million tons and Argentina’s 48.5 million, unchanged from prior forecasts. World ending stocks stand at 121.99 million metric tons, down slightly, but South American records cap prices. By 2034, U.S. acres trend to 85 million, balanced by 0.3% annual yield gains.
| Key U.S. Soybean Metrics | 2025/26 (November WASDE) |
2026/27 (USDA Long-Term Baseline) |
|---|---|---|
| Planted Acres (million) | 86.0 | 84.5 |
| Harvested Acres (million) | 83.4 | 81.0 |
| Yield (bushels/acre) | 53.0 | 52.0 |
| Production (billion bushels) | 4.253 | 4.212 |
| Total Supply (billion bushels) | 5.225 | – |
| Ending Stocks (billion bushels) | 0.290 | 0.320 |
| Season-Average Farm Price ($/bushel) | 10.50 | 10.50 |
Demand Drivers
Domestic demand anchors on crush, projected at 2.56 billion bushels for 2025/26—up on soybean meal for exports—while exports hold at 1.69 billion bushels, primarily to China (60% share) and the EU. Food, seed, and industrial use adds 0.225 billion. Long-term, crush grows to 2.600 billion by 2034 on biofuel expansion, exports to 1.865 billion (up 40 million from 2025/26), and total use +1.5% annually on global protein needs. U.S. retains ~35% of world trade, challenged by Brazil’s 112 million ton exports matching China’s imports.
Globally, demand rises 1.2% to 415 million metric tons in 2025/26, driven by Asia’s feed and oil sectors, but ample stocks limit urgency. Key bullish factor: EPA’s higher biofuel blends boosting U.S. crush by 50-75 million bushels annually.
Price Forecast
Season-average farm prices for 2025/26 rise to $10.50 per bushel, up $0.50 from September, tracking futures. For 2026/27, prices hold at $10.50, with nominal gains to $10.75 by 2034 as demand edges supply. Cash basis in the Midwest firms to $0.20 under futures, but breakevens near $11.00 pressure margins. Globally, soybeans average $460 per metric ton (~$11.68 per bushel equivalent) in 2026, easing from $475 in 2025. Futures may range $10.00–$11.50, with upside from Chinese surprises or Argentine drought, downside from Brazilian bumper crops.
Profitability squeezes: Projected 2026 net returns at $50-75 per acre, down from $100 in 2024, amid $650/acre costs—the tightest since 2016.
Risk Factors
– **Bullish**: Stronger China buys (e.g., exceeding 918 million bushels), La Niña dryness in Argentina/Brazil, or expanded biofuel mandates like sustainable aviation fuel.
– **Bearish**: Ideal South American weather yielding records, U.S. trade frictions, or weak global GDP curbing feed demand.
– **Volatility Drivers**: BofA highlights soybean oil’s bullish tilt into 2026 on supply constraints; analysts like Rich Nelson note profit-taking risks post-rallies.
Conclusion
The 2026 soybean futures outlook sketches a steady but range-bound market, with global abundance offsetting U.S. export gains and biofuel tailwinds. Producers grapple with slim margins, but traders eye volatility from weather and policy. Track USDA WASDE updates, Brazilian safrinha planting, and China procurement for signals; hedge around the $10.50 pivot. Baseline assumes neutral conditions—shifts could pivot the story.